ERDENEBAT BADAMSUREN
Evaluation of the Multimodal Transport Strategy for Ulaanbaatar Using Micro-Traffic Simulation
Kazushi SANO
This research addresses critical urban mobility challenges in Ulaanbaatar, where a rapidly growing population and a heavy reliance on cars (used by roughly 64% of commuters, rising to 80% in the suburbs) have led to severe congestion. The research evaluates a proposed multimodal strategy integrating Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), flexible minibus feeder services, and Park-and-Ride (P&R) facilities. A scenario-based stated preference survey with 275 valid responses elicited commuter preferences for BRT and feeder service combinations. A Panel Mixed Logit model analyzed the survey data, revealing that the cost of travel and waiting time strongly influence mode choice, along with demographic factors such as education, age, income, and vehicle ownership. Notably, more educated individuals and those owning cars tended to shift to the proposed multimodal options more than conventional bus or taxi services. Model estimates suggest that under improved service conditions, roughly 29% of private car trips could be shifted to the new multimodal system. A micro-traffic simulation using AIMSUN was conducted to assess network-wide effects. The simulation incorporated a 29% reduction in car trips to reflect the projected modal shift. Results showed a 14.6% reduction in total travel time, average delay time per kilometer dropped by 24.9%.
Furthermore, vehicle speed improved by 10.4%, increasing from 27.31 km/h to 30.15 km/h, and vehicle density decreased by 27.2%, from 8.84 to 6.44 vehicles/km. These changes indicate smoother traffic flow and reduced congestion across the network. The findings confirm that a well-integrated multimodal system can significantly enhance urban mobility in Ulaanbaatar.