KHANT KYAW HTUN

Identifying Key Factors and Forecasting Demand to Implement Shared Taxi Services using Stated Preference Survey

Kazushi SANO

In recent years, rural areas and semi-rural areas of Japan face transportation problems due to demographic shifts and economic constraints. As the countryÕs population ages, rural areas encounter steep decline in both the availability and accessibility of public transportation services. With the reduced bus services, residents are forced to rely heavily on the private cars and for many people, especially the retired senior citizens, are left without a reliable and affordable transportation options to get around. Addressing this problem the local governments in rural areas with limited bus services, began initiating the use shared taxi services as the substitution for reduced bus services and as a supplement to  taxis. With this growing trend of ride sharing services, willingness to share factors are needed to be identified for better understanding of the trade offs between cost and time the people are wiling to make. Rough demand estimation is also important for service providers and policy makers to design an efficient ride sharing service. This study explores the potential of shared taxi services in rural areas of Japan as a solution and substitution to public transportation challenges caused by bus reductions. Scenario based stated preference Survey was conducted in three rural cities of Niigata Prefecture, Japan to cover diverse range of people with different mobility patterns and similar city characteristics. Discrete choice models were developed to identify the key factors to consider for the ride-sharing services. Moreover, a separate choice model is developed and by using probability function, demand was estimated for Nagaoka City. The sensitivity analysis of different wait time and cost are also conducted to determine the changes in probabilities of choosing shared taxis according to the different level of service. After the analysis, theoretical and practical implications of ride-sharing services are made for successful implementation of shared taxi services.