Kanji ONUMA

Development of a Route Choice Behavior Model Considering Winter Highway Passability

Kazushi SANO

This study focuses on the provision of information to promote behavioral change in order to reduce traffic volume on snowy stretches and decrease the risk of staying on the expressway, as one preventive measure against the background of a long-term staying event caused by heavy snowfall on the Kanetsu Expressway. The objective of this study is to quantitatively analyze how the provision of information affects the behavioral choices of highway users. In the analysis, two surveys were conducted to examine the behavioral choices made when information under the assumption of heavy snowfall was presented, and a route choice behavior model was constructed. In each survey, the influence of the accuracy of the information and the timing of its provision on the choice of action were also analyzed.
In the first survey, we conducted a study to clarify the effects on action selection when road information and uncertainties such as the possibility of traffic were presented. The results of the analysis indicated that the respondents were more likely to choose a detour when highly accurate information was provided at least one day before departure, and that the probability of choosing to use a car was lower when uncertain factors were provided. However, there were also some issues in that the accuracy of the information was expressed in terms of the amount of information, and the analysis could not be conducted utilizing the results of the selection of actions with different timing of provision. In the second survey, these issues were improved. To quantify the accuracy of the information, the mean-variance approach used to evaluate the reliability of road traffic was used as a reference. Two methods of analysis were used: (1) a method of comparison by estimating a model for each provision timing, and (2) a method of analyzing the transition of the results of action selection at the provision timing. The results of the analysis revealed that the impact of the accuracy of the information differed depending on the timing of the provision of the information, and that the selection results were difficult to transition.