Takuto IZU

Analysis of Vacant House Contracts for Vacant House Banks Across Japan

Kazushi SANO

In recent years, the number of vacant houses has been increasing in all regions of Japan. As a solution to this problem, local governments are working on a vacant house bank system. Against this backdrop, we conducted an analysis of property data registered in a nationwide bank of vacant houses using detailed property information and location information to identify the internal and location factors that led to the conclusion of a contract.
First, a model was constructed using multiple regression analysis with price as the objective variable to estimate the price of vacant properties. This is because the price of a vacant house is sometimes determined by the owner's asking price, in addition to the price determined by a professional appraiser.
Next, a discriminant analysis was conducted using the results obtained from the multiple regression analysis, with contracted and uncontracted as the objective variables. The results of the discriminant analysis indicated that properties in the urbanization control area tended to be sold, but there was a possibility that the intention of the municipality was inversely related to the concept of community development. In addition, we identified the discrepancy between the factors that lead to the construction of vacant houses obtained by discriminant analysis and the factors that lead to the occurrence of vacant houses obtained by previous studies.
Based on these results, it was considered desirable to review financial subsidies such as demolition subsidies for vacant houses and purchase subsidies for vacant houses in order to reduce the number of vacant houses. Based on the above results, future issues include the enhancement of variables used in the analysis and the consideration of measures.