Mohammad Jalil Ebrahimi
Evaluation of the Public Transportation System in Kabul By Time of Day User Equilibrium Assignment
Associate Professor Kazushi Sano (Chairperson)¡¤Assistant Professor Hiroaki Nishiuchi
Public transportation is a relatively high-capacity and energy-efficient alternative for urban passenger transportation. With the developing of society and economy, demand for public transportation increased dramatically in Kabul city. This paper probed into the public transportation system in Kabul and evaluated its development. Based on current situation and trend in public transportation, the strategy scenarios for public transportation development pointed out. Further efforts should be allocated on infrastructure construction, public transportation priority system development, government finance and policy support, and establishment of information system, thus to establish a diversified, multi-level public transportation system in Kabul city. In detail, this research discusses the effects of implementing Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) through three scenarios in Kabul city, including how to evaluate the systems and model bus operations with current public transport situation in the study area. For this purpose, the study fist considering on traffic demand analysis and demand forecasting based on four steps model, and make a Time of Day User Equilibrium Assignment (TDUEA). Then, apply the model to predict the future demand to clarify the traffic condition in 2025. Second with regard to future traffic conditions that results obtained from Time of Day User Equilibrium Assignment, focused on strategy scenarios to evaluate the system. Therefore, assessment indicators are total travel time and average speed. Finally, in this research focused on economic evaluations for each considered scenarios. Therefore the Cost-Benefit Analysis for introduction of BRT system in Kabul city which are capital cost, operation and maintenance costs, and also in case of benefits, including the benefits to change in travel time for drivers and transit users, change in vehicle operation cost for drivers and fare transit users, change in emissions of criteria pollutants and benefit to change in crash costs. As mentioned, cost-benefit analysis consider for a relatively long period, 30 years. During the construction of the project, its cost is too high comparing to the benefit, but the benefits during the years of service will dramatic increased. It is also intended that the buses should be replaced by every 10 years, therefore the costs for the new vehicle also considered during the project years
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