Masataka NOTSU
A Study on Sediment Disaster Risk in Shimane Prefecture
Minjiao LU
The sediment disaster is high in a human life risk, and it¡Çs difficult to predict. Compared to other natural disasters, it produce many victims in particular. Therefore, for the safe living of the nation, the countermeasures of sediment disaster are very important.
In this study based on data of actual disaster in Shimane and I made a model that leads to the probability of occurrence of sediment disasters. The disaster data is a summary of the sediment disasters information that occurred in Shimane from January 1 to December 9 2013. A probability model of sediment disaster was made by multiple logistic regression analysis. Using the explanatory variables that it¡Çs easy to relatively handle, the model predicts the probability of occurrence and I evaluate it. The explanatory variable is the relief energy, soil moisture and the daily precipitation. In addition, I check the surface geological features of the occurrence and non-occurrence mesh and assess the effect of each geological age. The non-occurrence mesh which is set as the four directions of the left and right and top and bottom of the occurrence mesh. The mesh size is 1km¡ß1km.
As a result, a large difference wasn¡Çt appeared in the occurrence and non-occurrence by the prediction of the model. However, when focusing on the relationship of the probability as explanatory variables, the occurrence data estimate of the model is generally judged to be more dangerous than the non-occurrence data. Furthermore, the model which used soil moisture as the explanatory variable was better than the daily precipitation about sensitivity. If prediction use as an index the results of the model, it is necessary to lower the judgment criteria of the occurrence and non-occurrence. Then, I can judge degree of risk to some extent by comparing the index with the estimate of the model
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