Eri TANIGUCHI
Basic examination about the data infrastructure of the flood prediction in the small and medium size river basins
Minjiao Lu
In late years torrential rain occurs frequently, and the damage such as the sudden flooding and flooding of the river with it, the submergence of the inundation and the road of the house, a landslide, the landslide is reported in whole country each place. I receive the repeated heavy rain disaster including a flood, the earth and sand disaster caused by the heavy rain that it is only new and spends it on memory in Niigata in August from Niigata, Fukushima heavy rain of July, 2004 and July, 2011, the end of July, last year, and got up. I predict a flood caused by the precipitation in the small and medium size river where the flooding is easy to be generated as new system maintenance about the flood control of software measures of the river in the prefecture. However, I estimate quantity of evapotranspiration from quantity of sunlight without going the observation of short wave emission (sun emission) and the long wave emission (earth emission) now in Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, and it is the present conditions to incorporate in a model. It is difficult to collect the data of the spot for several decades with the general engine (cities, towns and villages), and the data of the quantity of sunlight take time very again. I omit the trouble, and it is thought that coherent local information can send it in a flood outflow if the prediction that has high precision with the general engine is possible. Therefore, in this study, it was intended that I simplified data of the evapotranspiration quantity that was essential to the long-term flood prediction of the small and medium size river in time and space. In addition, for flood outflow analysis, I use XAJSF model (Yamamoto, land, 2008-2009 years) suggested as one of the technique to take a flood prediction on in the future. At first I calculated the basin average precipitation in the Ikarashi River basin, and and I analyzed a flood outflow of long-term (including two heavy rain disasters that occurred in the prefecture for 2004 through 2011), and a model confirmed an effective thing for a short term (at the time of July, 2011 Niigata, Fukushima heavy rain) in an object basin. Then, using data of the AMeDAS for the past 11 years, simplification inspected quantity of time-consuming evapotranspiration in calculation in time and space whether possible. The AMeDAS data used the AMeDAS data of 50 places of whole country about the spatial simplification by the data of the Article 3 observatory of the Ikarashi River basin neighborhood for time simplification. In addition, with the AMeDAS data, I need data of the latitude and longitude of temperature, the wind velocity, the humidity and the observatory to a minimum in the daylight hours. I was able to confirm that inferiority approximately got the analysis result (more than Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient 0.934) of the flood outflow that there was not when I acquired evapotranspiration quantity every 1st in the observatory of the target basin neighborhood if I could acquire data of the evapotranspiration quantity for every month of the observatory in Niigata as a result of inspection in the Ikarashi River basin which was a target basin. Equalization of the quantity of such evapotranspiration is effective, or, in other local basins out of Niigata as a future problem, there is the need inspecting
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