Yumiko SUGA

A Study on the Evaluation of Bus System with Punctuality
|A Case Study in Nagaoka|
Kazushi SANO


Punctuality in operation time plays a key element to decide the service level of bus besides fare, travel time, and operation frequency. Not only passengers but also bus companies ensure that the punctuality increases the efficiency of bus operation and the number of passengers.

It is important to grasp the present state and predict the behavior of passengers under the punctuality service for evaluation. Therefore, a fact-finding survey has been conducted and two models, which are a modal choice model and a departure time estimation model, have been developed. Bus operation with punctuality is evaluated from the viewpoints of both bus users and bus operators. The benefit of bus users comes from the reduction of waiting time at bus stops, which is calculated by the arrival time prediction model. The benefit of bus operators comes from the increase in number of passengers and reduction of operation costs. Bus operation cost is expected to decrease because of reduction of the slack time on timetable at terminals.

As a result of sensitivity analysis, the number of passengers who shift to bus is not significant when only punctuality is ensured. However, if some policies, such as bus preemption signal control or exclusive bus lane, are implemented, it will increase the number of passengers and decrease the bus operation costs.