Tae Shimoda

Transportation business conditions and truck size selection model in distribution in city

Kazushi Sano

In this research, the model reproduces the behavior and maximizes the profit of each decision maker that decides business type and size of trucks, which are important roles of freight movement.
The factors to decide them were explored using the data from the Tokyo metropolitan area goods movement survey. A Nested Logit model was utilized to determine the factors influenced the decision making process. The model was developed using three-level nested logit model which included the following choices, truck size (large, small, and light trucks), transportation business conditions (private and business trucks), and consolidation conditions (consolidation or not consolidation). Even though the result of 70% hit ratio is statistically significant, the current specification is still need an improvement because of the limited number of the available date.
This model can explain how freight movement pattern changes with response to the increasing fuel taxes. Considering the environment tax from the changes of the share of business type and size of truck, we can quantitatively compare energy generated by freight both before and after.