Sachi KITAGAMI

Study of Prediction Models of Pavement Performance for use Hokuriku Region

Teruhiko MARUYAMA

Recently, it is strongly needed for Road engineer to maintain and manage pavement. And Pavement Management System (PMS) was developed to assist decision maker.
It is needed to make prediction models of pavement performance for developing more rational PMS.
In this study, Markov chain theory was used for predicting pavement performance. And FPCI (Fuzzy Pavement Condition Index) is introduced as a pavement condition index used as instead of MCI, because MCI suggest only repair method of construction and it is difficult to imagine real pavement condition by MCI.
Finally, prediction models of MCI and FPCI using Markov chain theory were developed. And from comparison of FPCI and MCI, it is more appropriate to use both index for predicting future pavement condition.